Nations that are known or believed to possess nuclear weapons are sometimes referred to as the nuclear club. There are currently nine states that have successfully detonated nuclear weapons. Five are considered to be "nuclear weapons states", an internationally recognized status conferred by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In order of acquisition of nuclear weapons these are: the United States, Russia (successor state to the Soviet Union), the United Kingdom, France and China.
Since the NPT entered into force in 1970, three states that were not parties to the Treaty have conducted nuclear tests: India, Pakistan, and North Korea. North Korea had been a party to the NPT but withdrew in 2003. Israel is also widely believed to have nuclear weapons, though it has refused to confirm or deny this.[Calls for Olmert to resign after nuclear gaffe | Israel and the Middle East | Guardian Unlimited] The status of these nations is not formally recognized by international bodies as none of them are currently parties to the NPT. South Africa has the unique status of a nation which developed nuclear weapons but has since disassembled its arsenal before joining the NPT.
Since 2003, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been been able to "clarify all the remaining outstanding issues" of Iran\'s nuclear program with the exception of "alleged weaponization studies that supposedly Iran has conducted in the past."[Latest Iran Safeguards Report Circulated to IAEA Board (2008). Retrieved on 2008-02-24.] A U.S. National Intelligence Estimate of December 3, 2007 judged that Iran halted an active nuclear weapons program in fall 2003 and that US intelligence did "not know whether it [Iran] currently intends to develop nuclear weapons."[Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities (National Intelligence Estimate)] Iran has stated that it categorically rejects the development of nuclear weapons.
Estimated worldwide nuclear stockpiles
The following is a list of nations that have admitted the possession of nuclear weapons, the approximate number of warheads under their control in 2002, and the year they tested their first weapon. This list is informally known in global politics as the "Nuclear Club". With the exception of Russia and the United States (which have subjected their nuclear forces to independent verification under various treaties) these figures are estimates, in some cases quite unreliable estimates. Also, these figures represent total warheads possessed, rather than deployed. In particular, under the SORT treaty thousands of Russian and U.S. nuclear warheads are in inactive stockpiles awaiting processing. The fissile material contained in the warheads can then be recycled for use in nuclear reactors.
From a high of 65,000 active weapons in 1985, there were about 20,000 active nuclear weapons in the world in 2002. Many of the "decommissioned" weapons were simply stored or partially dismantled, not destroyed.[Webster, Paul (July/August 2003). "Just like old times," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59:4: 30–35. [1]] As of 2007, the total number was expected to continue to decline by 30%-50% over the next decade.
| Country | Warheads active/total* | Year of first test
|
| Five nuclear weapons states from the NPT
|
 United States
| 5,163 / 9,938[Norris, Robert S., and Hans M. Kristensen, "The U.S. stockpile, today and tomorrow", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 63:5 (September/October 2007): 60-63, [2].] | 1945 ("Trinity")
|
 Russia (former  Soviet Union)
| 5,830 / 16,000[Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen. "Russian nuclear forces, 2006," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 62:2 (March/April 2006): 64-67, [3]] | 1949 ("RDS-1")
|
 United Kingdom
| 200["Government announces intention to maintain the UK\'s Nuclear Deterrent", Defence News, UK Ministry of Defence (4 December 2006). "We have already reduced our operationally available stockpile to less than 200 and today\'s decision will see that number reduced to less than 160."] | 1952 ("Hurricane")
|
 France
| <350[Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen. "French nuclear forces, 2005," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 61:4 (July/August 2005): 73-75,[4]] | 1960 ("Gerboise Bleue")
|
 China
| 200[Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen. "Global Nuclear Stockpiles, 1945-2006," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 62:4 (June/July 2006): 64-67, [5]] | 1964 ("596")
|
| Other known nuclear powers
|
 India
| 70-120[Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen. "India\'s nuclear forces, 2005," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 61:5 (September/October 2005): 73-75,[6]] | 1974 ("Smiling Buddha")
|
 Pakistan
| 30-80[Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen. "Pakistan\'s nuclear forces, 2001," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 58:1 (January/February 2002): 70-71,[7]] | 1998 ("Chagai-I")
|
 North Korea
| 1-10[Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen. "North Korea\'s nuclear program, 2005," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 61:3 (May/June 2005): 64-67,[8]] | 2006 (The Beginning)[globalsecurity.org. Nuclear Weapons Testing - North Korean Statements][unreliable source?]
|
| Undeclared nuclear weapons states
|
 Israel
| 75-200[Norris, Robert S., William Arkin, Hans M. Kristensen, and Joshua Handler. "Israeli nuclear forces, 2002," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 58:5 (September/October 2002): 73-75.][Federation of American Scientists: Nuclear Weapons - Israel][Arms Control Association: Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance] | unknown or 1979 (See Vela Incident)
|
*All numbers are estimates from the Natural Resources Defense Council, published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, unless other references are given. If differences between active and total stockpile are known, they are given as two figures separated by a forward slash. If no specifics are known, only one figure is given. Stockpile number may not contain all intact warheads if a substantial amount of warheads are scheduled for but have not yet gone through dismantlement; not all "active" warheads are deployed at any given time. When a range of weapons is given (e.g., 0–10), it generally indicates that the estimate is being made on the amount of fissile material that has likely been produced, and the amount of fissile material needed per warhead depends on estimates of a country\'s proficiency at nuclear weapon design.
Five nuclear weapons states from the NPT
- See also: History of nuclear weapons
An early stage in the "Trinity" fireball, the first nuclear explosion.
U.S. and USSR/Russian nuclear weapons stockpiles, 1945–2006.
French nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and the American nuclear-powered carrier USS Enterprise (left), each of which carry nuclear-capable fighter aircraft
Main article: Nuclear weapons and the United States
The United States developed the first atomic weapons during World War II in co-operation with the United Kingdom and Canada, out of the fear that Nazi Germany would develop them first. It tested its first nuclear weapon in 1945 ("Trinity"), and remains the only country to have used nuclear weapons against another nation, during the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (see: Manhattan Project). It was the first nation to develop the hydrogen bomb, testing it ("Ivy Mike") in 1952 and a deployable version in 1954 ("Castle Bravo").[Hansen, Chuck (1988). U.S. nuclear weapons: The secret history. Arlington, TX: Aerofax. ISBN 0-517-56740-7. ][Hansen, Chuck (1995). The Swords of Armageddon: U.S. nuclear weapons development since 1945. Sunnyvale, CA: Chukelea Publications. ]
- See also: United States and weapons of mass destruction#Nuclear weapons
Main article: Military history of the Soviet Union#The Cold War and nuclear weapons
The Soviet Union tested its first nuclear weapon ("Joe-1") in 1949, in a crash project developed partially with espionage obtained during and after World War II (see: Soviet atomic bomb project). The USSR was the first European nation to have developed and tested a nuclear weapon. The direct motivation for their weapons development was the development of a balance of power during the Cold War. It tested a primitive hydrogen bomb in 1953 ("Joe-4") and a megaton-range hydrogen bomb in 1955 ("RDS-37"). The Soviet Union also tested the most powerful explosive ever detonated by humans, ("Tsar Bomba"), with a theoretical yield of 100 megatons, intentionally reduced to 50 when detonated. After its dissolution in 1991, the Soviets\' weapons entered officially into the possession of Russia.[Holloway, David (1994). Stalin and the bomb: The Soviet Union and atomic energy, 1939-1956. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. ISBN 0-300-06056-4. ]
- See also: Russia and weapons of mass destruction#Nuclear weapons
Main article: Nuclear weapons and the United Kingdom
The United Kingdom tested its first nuclear weapon ("Hurricane") in 1952, drawing largely on data gained while collaborating with the United States during the Manhattan Project. The UK was the second European nation to have developed and tested a nuclear weapon. Its program was motivated to have an independent deterrent against the USSR, while also remaining relevant in Cold War Europe. It tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1957.[Gowing, Margaret (1974). Independence and deterrence: Britain and atomic energy, 1945-1952. London: Macmillan. ISBN 0333157818. ][Arnold, Lorna (2001). Britain and the H-bomb. Basingstoke: Palgrave. ISBN 0312235186. ] It maintains the Trident ballistic missile fleet of four \'Vanguard\' class nuclear-powered submarines. The British government controversially announced a replacement to the current Trident system to take place over the next decade (see British replacement of the Trident system).
Main article: Nuclear weapons and France
France tested its first nuclear weapon in 1960 ("Gerboise Bleue"), based mostly on its own research. It was motivated by the Suez Crisis diplomatic tension vis-à-vis both the USSR and the Free World allies United States and United Kingdom. It was also relevant to retain great power status, along side the United Kingdom, during the post-colonial Cold War (see: Force de frappe). France tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1968 ("Opération Canopus"). After the Cold War, France has disarmed 175 warheads with the reduction and modernization of its arsenal that has now evolved to a dual system based on submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SSBN) and medium-range air-to-surface missiles (Rafale fighter-bombers). However new nuclear weapons are in development and reformed nuclear squadrons were trained during Enduring Freedom operation in Afghanistan. In January 2006, President Jacques Chirac stated a terrorist act or the use of weapons of mass destruction against France would result in a nuclear counterattack.[France \'would use nuclear arms\' (BBC, Jan. 2006)]
Main article: China and weapons of mass destruction#Nuclear weapons
China tested its first nuclear weapon in 1964. China was the first Asian nation to have developed and tested a nuclear weapon. The weapon was developed as a deterrent against both the United States and the USSR. It tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1967 at Lop Nur.[John Wilson Lewis and Xue Litai, China Builds the Bomb (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1988). ISBN 0804714525] The country is currently thought to have had a stockpile of around 130 warheads.[Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen. "Chinese nuclear forces, 2006," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 62:3 (May/June 2006): 60-63, [9]; Lewis, Jeffery. "The ambiguous arsenal," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 61:3 (May/June 2005): 52-59. [10].]
Other known nuclear powers
An Indian
Agni-III Intermediate range ballistic missile displayed at the Republic Day Parade 2008.
Main article: India and weapons of mass destruction
India has never been a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It tested a "peaceful nuclear device", as it was described by the Indian government, in 1974 ("Smiling Buddha"), the first test developed after the creation of the NPT, and created new questions about how civilian nuclear technology could be diverted secretly to weapons purposes (dual-use technology). India\'s secret development caused great concern and anger particularly from nations that had supplied it nuclear reactors for peaceful and power generating needs such as Canada. It appears to have been primarily motivated as a deterrent against China and arch rival Pakistan as well as attempt to project India as regional power. It tested weaponized nuclear warheads in 1998 ("Operation Shakti"), including a thermonuclear device.[India\'s Nuclear Weapons Program: Operation Shakti: 1998.] In July 2005, it was officially recognized by the United States as "a responsible state with advanced nuclear technology" and agreed to full nuclear cooperation between the two nations.[Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (carnegieendowment.org), Proliferation Analysis: A Nuclear Triumph for India] This is seen as a tacit entry into the nuclear club of the above nations. In March 2006, a civil nuclear cooperation deal was signed between President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. This deal, ratified by the United States House of Representatives and United States Senate in December 2006 would pave the path for the United States and other members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group to sell civilian nuclear technology to India. As of September 2005, India was estimated to have had a stockpile of around 70-120 warheads.[Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen. "India\'s nuclear forces, 2005", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 61:5 (September/October 2005): 73–75,[11]]
Pakistan\'s nuclear explosion test in the rocks of
Chagai on 28th May, 1998
Main article: Pakistan and weapons of mass destruction
Pakistan is not a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty either. Pakistan covertly developed nuclear weapons over many decades, beginning in the late 1970s. Pakistan first delved into nuclear power after the establishment of its first nuclear power plant near Karachi with equipment and materials supplied mainly by western nations in the early 1970s. Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto promised in 1965 that if India built nuclear weapons Pakistan would too, "even if we have to eat grass." It is nearly certain that China supplied an old Chinese (Lop Nor 3/4 vintage) weapons design and critical ring magnets to Pakistan in the early 1980s, and enabled Pakistan to have a rudimentary nuclear weapons capability by the end of the 1980s. The United States continued to certify that Pakistan did not possess nuclear weapons until 1990, when sanctions were imposed under the Pressler Amendment, requiring a cutoff of U.S. economic and military assistance to Pakistan.[Case Studies in Sanctions and Terrorism: Pakistan] In 1998, Pakistan conducted its first nuclear tests at the Chagai Hills, in response to the tests conducted by India a few weeks before.
Main article: North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
North Korea was a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but announced a withdrawal on January 10, 2003 after the United States accused it of having a secret uranium enrichment program and cut off energy assistance under the 1994 Agreed Framework. In February 2005 they claimed to possess functional nuclear weapons, though their lack of a test at the time led many experts to doubt the claim. However, in October 2006, North Korea stated that due to growing intimidation by the USA, it would conduct a nuclear test to confirm its nuclear status. North Korea reported a successful nuclear test on October 9, 2006 (see 2006 North Korean nuclear test). Most U.S. intelligence officials believe that North Korea did, in fact, test a nuclear device due to radioactive isotopes detected by U.S. aircraft; however, most agree that the test was probably only partially successful, and may have had less than a kiloton in yield.[citation needed]
Undeclared nuclear states
On
October 5,
1986, the
British newspaper
The Sunday Times ran
Mordechai Vanunu\'s story on its front page under the headline: "Revealed — the secrets of Israel\'s nuclear arsenal."
Main article: Israel and nuclear weapons
Israel is not a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and refuses to officially confirm or deny having a nuclear arsenal, or having developed nuclear weapons, or even having a nuclear weapons program. Israel has pledged not to be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons into the region, but is also pursuing a policy of strategic ambiguity with regard to their possession. In the late 1960s, Israeli Ambassador to the US Yitzhak Rabin informed the United States State Department, that its understanding of "introducing" such weapons meant that they would be tested and publicly declared, while merely possessing the weapons did not constitute "introducing" them.[Avner Cohen and William Burr, "-http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/28/AR2006042801326_pf.html The Untold Story of Israel\'s Bomb]," Washington Post, April 30, 2006; B01.] Although Israel claims that the Negev Nuclear Research Center near Dimona is a "research reactor", or, as was originally claimed, a "textile factory," no scientific reports based on work done there have ever been published. Extensive information about the program in Dimona was also disclosed by technician Mordechai Vanunu in 1986.
- According to the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Federation of American Scientists, Israel possesses around 75–200 weapons.
[Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (August 17, 2000) Israel\'s Nuclear Weapons] Imagery analysts can identify weapon bunkers, mobile missile launchers, and launch sites in satellite photographs. Israel may have tested a nuclear weapon along with South Africa in 1979, but this has never been confirmed (see Vela Incident).
- See also: Israel and weapons of mass destruction
States accused of having nuclear weapons programs
Below are countries which have been accused by a number of governments of currently attempting to develop nuclear weapons technology.
Main article: Iran and weapons of mass destruction#Nuclear weapons
A U.S. National Intelligence Estimate of December 3, 2007 judged with "high confidence" that Iran had an active nuclear weapons program which was halted in fall 2003 and with "moderate confidence" that it remained halted as of mid-2007. The estimate further judged that US intelligence did not know whether Iran intended "to develop nuclear weapons," but that "Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU [highly enriched uranium] for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame" if it decides to do so.[Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities (National Intelligence Estimate)] IAEA Director General ElBaradei noted in particular that the Estimate tallies with the Agency´s consistent statements over the last few years that "although Iran still needs to clarify some important aspects of its past and present nuclear activities, the Agency has no concrete evidence of an ongoing nuclear weapons program or undeclared nuclear facilities in Iran."[Statement by IAEA Director General on New U.S. Intelligence Estimate on Iran (4 December 2007), IAEA.org] Iran\'s representative to the UN has explained that Iran categorically rejects the development of nuclear weapons and Iran is guaranteed the right to peaceful nuclear technology under the NPT.[Security Council Imposes Sanctions on Iran for failure to halt Uranium Enrichment, Unanimously adopting Resolution 1737 (2006) (2006-12-23).]
States speculated to have nuclear weapons programs
Below are states for which there are rumors and speculation over possible nuclear weapons programs, but which have not been accused by other governments of having such programs.
Main article: Syria and weapons of mass destruction#Nuclear weapons
Syria is a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and had an open and disclosed interest in nuclear research reactors for scientific purposes. On September 6, 2007, Israel bombed an alleged undisclosed and North Korean-built Syrian plutonium processing facility or nuclear reactor, which was allegedly part of a clandestine nuclear program.["Israelis hit Syrian ‘nuclear bomb plant’", Times UK (2 December 2007).]["Yet Another Photo of Site in Syria, Yet More Questions", New York Times (27 October 2007).]["Israeli Raid on Syria Fuels Debate on Weapons", New York Times (22 September 2007).] The Nuclear Threat Initiative, a public charity which exists to strengthen global security by reducing the spread of nuclear weapons, has said "although the Israeli and U.S. governments have expressed concerns about Syrian nuclear weapons aspirations, there is little convincing evidence of such an objective".[NTI: Syria Profile] North Korea and Syria have both denied any nuclear cooperation.[N. Korea Hopes for Friendship With Syria]
States and other entities that may have had nuclear weapons programs
The development of nuclear weapons by the ROC has been a contentious issue, as it has been cited by the PRC as a reason to attack Taiwan. The U.S., hoping to avoid escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, has continually opposed arming the ROC with nuclear weapons. Accordingly, the ROC adheres to the principles of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has stated that it does not intend to produce nuclear weapons. Past nuclear research by the ROC makes it a \'threshold\' nuclear state.
In 1967, a nuclear weapons program began under the auspices of the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research (INER) at the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology. The ROC was able to acquire nuclear technology from abroad (including a research reactor from Canada and low-grade plutonium from the United States) allegedly for a civilian energy system, but in actuality to develop fuel for nuclear weapons.[Roy, Denny [2003]. Taiwan: A Political History. Cornell University Press. ISBN 0-8014-8805-2. ]
After the International Atomic Energy Agency found evidence of the ROC\'s efforts to produce weapons-grade plutonium, Taipei agreed in September 1976 under U.S. pressure to dismantle its nuclear weapons program. Though the nuclear reactor was soon shut down and the plutonium mostly returned to the U.S., work continued secretly.
A secret program was revealed when Colonel Chang Hsien-yi, deputy director of nuclear research at INER who was secretly working for the CIA defected to the U.S. in December 1987 and produced a cache of incriminating documents. General Hau Pei-tsun claimed that scientists in Taiwan had already produced a controlled nuclear reaction. Under pressure from the U.S., the program was halted.
During the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, then ROC President Lee Teng-hui proposed to reactivate the program, but was forced to back down a few days later after drawing intense criticism.
Nuclear weapons sharing
Main article: Nuclear sharing
Under NATO nuclear weapons sharing, the United States has provided nuclear weapons for Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey to deploy and store.[Berlin Information-center for Transatlantic Security: NATO Nuclear Sharing and the N.PT - Questions to be Answered] This involves pilots and other staff of the "non-nuclear" NATO states practising handling and delivering the U.S. nuclear bombs, and adapting non-U.S. warplanes to deliver U.S. nuclear bombs. Until 1984 Canada also received shared nuclear weapons, and until 2001 Greece.[Hans M. Kristensen (February 2005), U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe, Natural Resources Defense Council, <http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/euro/euro.pdf>. Retrieved on 23 May 2006] Members of the Non-Aligned Movement have called on all countries to "refrain from nuclear sharing for military purposes under any kind of security arrangements."[Statement on behalf of the non-aligned state parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, 2 May 2005] The Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) has criticized the arrangement for allegedly violating Article I and II of the NPT, arguing that "these Articles do not permit the NWS to delegate the control of their nuclear weapons directly or indirectly to others."[ISSI - NPT in 2000: Challenges ahead, Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, The Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad] NATO has argued that the weapons sharing is compliant with the NPT because "the U.S. nuclear weapons based in Europe are in the sole possession and under constant and complete custody and control of the United States."[NATO\'s Positions Regarding Nuclear Non-Proliferation, Arms Control and Disarmament and Related Issues, NATO, June 2005]
States formerly possessing nuclear weapons
Nuclear weapons have been present in many nations, often as staging grounds under control of other powers. However, in only a few instances have nations given up nuclear weapons after being in control of them; in most cases this has been because of special political circumstances. The fall of the USSR, for example, left several former Soviet-bloc countries in possession of nuclear weapons.
Main article: South Africa and weapons of mass destruction
South Africa produced six nuclear weapons in the 1980s, but disassembled them in the early 1990s. In 1979 there was a putative detection of a clandestine nuclear test in the Indian Ocean, and it has long been speculated that it was potentially a test by South Africa, perhaps in collaboration with Israel, though this has never been confirmed (see Vela Incident). South Africa signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1991.[Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (May 29, 2000). Nuclear Weapons Program (South Africa)]
Former Soviet countries
Belarus had 81 single warhead missiles stationed on its territory after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. They were all transferred to Russia by 1996. Belarus has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.[Federation of American Scientists (fas.org). Belarus Special Weapons]
Kazakhstan inherited 1,400 nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union, and transferred them all to Russia by 1995. Kazakhstan has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.[Federation of American Scientists (fas.org). Kazakhstan Special Weapons]
Ukraine has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Ukraine inherited about 5,000 nuclear weapons when it became independent from the USSR in 1991, making its nuclear arsenal the third-largest in the world.[globalsecurity.org. Ukraine Special Weapons] By 1996, Ukraine had voluntarily disposed of all nuclear weapons within its territory, transferring them to Russia.[Federation of American Scientists (fas.org). Ukraine Special Weapons]
See also
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